Arthur Hayes and Will Clemente on How This Bitcoin Halving Is Different - Ep. 633

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The Bitcoin halving is just around the corner, expected to be on April 19 or April 20.
Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom, and Will Clemente, co-founder of Reflexivity Research discuss the rise in Bitcoin prices ahead of the halving, the impact of the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US, and the potential effects of the halving on the price trajectory post-halving. They also discuss the potential impact of a new class of investors on Bitcoin's price, volatility, and decentralization.
Learn more: Bitcoin Halving: What Is It & How Is It Determined?
Moreover, they dive into the impact of the macroeconomics, geopolitical, and demographic conditions for the crypto asset industry, the potential for L2s on Bitcoin, and their price predictions for bitcoin by year-end.
Show highlights:

How the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs altered the price trajectory of BTC before the halving

Whether the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs impacts Bitcoin's decentralization and price volatility

Whether this cycle could be the "last cycle" or the "supercycle"

Why Arthur predicts a 90% drawdown in the future and how they determine when the markets are nearing the top of the cycle

The effect of high inflation, the election, and the termination of the bank term funding program on Bitcoin

How artificial intelligence is expected to trigger a productivity boom, according to Will

Why Will considers Coinbase to be mispriced

Whether Bitcoin L2s have a future and if security budgets are a concern

Their views on Bitcoin Ordinals and the Runes Protocol launch

Why Will views DOGE as a purer commodity than ETH

Arthur's rebuttal to claims that Ethena could follow in Terra/Luna’s footsteps

Arthur's and Will’s Bitcoin price projections for the end of the year and the cycle

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Guest:

Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom.

Previous appearances on Unchained:

Arthur Hayes on Why Bitcoin Is Money and ETH Is a Shitcoin He Loves

Arthur Hayes, Former Ethereum Skeptic, on Why the Merge Makes Him Bullish on ETH

Arthur Hayes of Bitmex on Why Countries Will Turn to Digital

The Chopping Block: Arthur Hayes on Why Crypto Needs to Ditch the Banks

How Crypto and Blockchain Technology Could Change Financial Services

Will Clemente, Co-founder of Reflexivity Research

Previous appearance on Unchained: Strong Hands Aren't Selling Bitcoin. So Who Is?

Links

This cycle

Naval’s tweet: “The narrative for this cycle is ‘this is the last cycle.’”

Unchained:

Here’s Why No One Agrees Exactly When The Bitcoin Halving Will Happen

Bitcoin Miners Diversify Their Revenue Streams as Halving Nears

Heatwave by Arthur Hayes

Dissecting Bitcoin's “4 Year Cycle,” guest post by Will Clemente on The Pomp Letter

Bitcoin ETFs:

Unchained:

The Best Spot Bitcoin ETFs for Different Types of Investors

Who Is Buying Into Spot Bitcoin ETFs? We'll Soon Start to Get an Idea

Bitcoin ETFs Explained: What Are They & How Do They Work?

Macroeconomic conditions

CNBC: Consumer prices rose 3.5% from a year ago in March, more than expected

FT: Investors lose hope of rapid US interest rate cuts this year

Block size wars
Bloomberg: The Block War Is Still a Sore Subject for ‘Bitcoin Jesus’

Bitcoin L2s
Unchained: Stacks’ Muneeb Ali On Why Bitcoin Is Exciting Once Again

Runes
Decrypt: Bitcoin Runes Launch at the Halving: Here's Everything You Need to Know

Ethena

Hayes’ tweet on Ethena

Unchained:

ENA Surges 20% to New All-Time High as Ethena Rolls Out Reward Boosts

Ethena’s USDe Grew to $2 Billion in 7 Weeks. Is It Safe?

What Is Ethena's USDe Synethic Dollar?

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