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Annie Duke

Thinking in Bets

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  • Вадим Мазурidézett2 évvel ezelőtt
    our default is to believe what we hear
  • Вадим Мазурidézett2 évvel ezelőtt
    Experience is not what happens to a man; it is what a man does with what happens
    to him
  • Вадим Мазурidézett2 évvel ezelőtt
    There is a big difference between getting experience and becoming an expert. That difference lies in the ability to identify when the outcomes of our decisions have something to teach us and what that lesson might be.
  • Вадим Мазурidézett2 évvel ezelőtt
    The surprise is that blind-spot bias is greater the smarter you are.
  • Вадим Мазурidézett2 évvel ezelőtt
    Remember the order in which we form abstract beliefs:

    We hear something;
    We believe it;
    Only sometimes, later, if we have the time or the inclination, we think about it and vet it, determining whether or not it is true.
  • Вадим Мазурidézett2 évvel ezelőtt
    The more we recognize that we are betting on our beliefs (with our happiness, attention, health, money, time, or some other limited resource), the more we are likely to temper our statements, getting closer to the truth as we acknowledge the risk inherent in what we believe.
  • Вадим Мазурidézett2 évvel ezelőtt
    If one person expresses a belief as absolutely true, and someone else expresses a belief by saying, “I believe this to be true, and I’m 80% on it,” who are you more likely to believe? The fact that the person is expressing their confidence as less than 100% signals that they are trying to get at the truth, that they have considered the quantity and quality of their information with thoughtfulness and self-awareness. And thoughtful and self-aware people are more believable.
  • Вадим Мазурidézett2 évvel ezelőtt
    Poker players live in a world where that risk is made explicit. They can get comfortable with uncertainty because they put it up front in their decisions
  • Вадим Мазурidézett2 évvel ezelőtt
    People are credulous creatures who find it
    very easy to believe and very difficult to doubt
  • Вадим Мазурidézett2 évvel ezelőtt
    For survival-essential skills, type I errors (false positives) were less costly than type II errors (false negatives).
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